The Atlantic remains quiet

A weak trough of low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico has created a small area of heavy thunderstorms off the coast of Louisiana that are moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Surface pressure are high in the region, wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the system does not have enough time over water to develop. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 0% chance of development. This system will bring 1 - 2" of rain to coastal Louisiana on Saturday and to the Upper Texas coast on Sunday.

A tropical wave over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is kicking up a moderate area of intense thunderstorms, and this disturbance was designated Invest 95L by NHC on Saturday morning. The disturbance is headed west-northwest and will be over the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Sunday, and may barely have enough time over water to organize into a tropical depression before moving inland over Mexico near Veracruz by Monday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of development.

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday night could develop by Wednesday, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, according to the Saturday 00Z run of the Navy's NAVGEM model. However, this forecast is dubious, as none of the other models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the coming week. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry, stable air. A vigorous tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, August 29, probably represents the main threat for development in the Atlantic in August.

Extract from Dr.Jeff Masters' Blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.Add to Favorites